Farense 1-2 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Farense face Vitória SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Vitória SC at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Farense — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Farense's home record over their last 6 home games: 3W 1D 2L (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Vitória SC have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Vitória SC have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 1.60 PPG versus Vitória SC's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vitória SC in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 46% versus Vitória SC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 64% | Vitória SC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.54 xG and Vitória SC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 1.045 / defence 1.012 | Vitória SC attack 0.873 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.240. Data: built from Farense's last 11 games and Vitória SC's last 45.
Result probabilities: Farense 48% | Draw 25% | Vitória SC 27%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.10 | Draw 3.93 | Vitória SC 3.70. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Farense 33% (last 6 home games) | Vitória SC 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 48% | Draw 25% | Vitória SC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Farense 1.54 / Vitória SC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 1.045 / def 1.012 | Vitória SC attack 0.873 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Farense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Vitória SC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Farense vs Vitória SC FAQs
What time does Farense vs Vitória SC kick off?
Farense vs Vitória SC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Vitória SC?
Farense 1 - 2 Vitória SC.
Where is Farense vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Vitória SC part of?
Farense vs Vitória SC is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 48% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Farense and Vitória SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Farense vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Farense's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Vitória SC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Vitória SC's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Farense's last 11 games and Vitória SC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.93
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Farense xG
Total xG
2.63
1.09
Vitória SC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Farense vs Vitória SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Farense and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Farense and 1.09 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Farense have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 5W 1D 5L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Vitória SC's form line: 6W 1D 4L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.45 PPG, Vitória SC on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Farense have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 5 home games (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Farense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Farense are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.64 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
Farense (Home) vs Vitória SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Farense
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Farense vs Vitória SC Form FAQs
What form are Farense and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Vitória SC away?
Farense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 2.00 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Farense or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Farense's record when hosting Vitória SC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
2
Draws
1
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Farense vs Vitória SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Vitória SC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Farense have won 1, Vitória SC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Vitória SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2025: Vitória SC 1-2 Farense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Farense 40% BTTS, Vitória SC 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Farense) and 40% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Vitória SC in 40%; Vitória SC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Farense vs Vitória SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Farense and Vitória SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Farense's recent matches and 20% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Farense and Vitória SC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Farense's recent games and 40% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Vitória SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Farense's recent matches and 60% of Vitória SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitória SC defy the odds to beat Farense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Farense 1-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.54 xG and Vitória SC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitória SC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Vitória SC attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 48% | Draw 25% | Vitória SC 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Vitória SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 64%, Vitória SC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Vitória SC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.45 PPG, Vitória SC 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitória SC win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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