Boavista 0-4 Arouca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Boavista at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Boavista and Arouca meet at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arouca have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Boavista. A 0.90 PPG lead over Arouca (1.20 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Boavista, 1 for Arouca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 67% versus Arouca 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 60% | Arouca 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.52 xG and Arouca 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 1.018 / defence 1.244 | Arouca attack 0.798 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.230. Data: 45 Boavista games / 45 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 44% | Draw 25% | Arouca 31%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Arouca 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 80% | Arouca 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 44% | Draw 25% | Arouca 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Boavista 1.52 / Arouca 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 1.018 / def 1.244 | Arouca attack 0.798 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Boavista (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Arouca xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Arouca kick off?
Boavista vs Arouca kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Arouca?
Boavista 0 - 4 Arouca.
Where is Boavista vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Arouca part of?
Boavista vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 44% chance of winning, Arouca a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Boavista and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Arouca?
Record (4 meetings): Boavista 2W | Draws 1 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Boavista and Arouca in?
Boavista (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Boavista's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.80x) against Boavista's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.96
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.74
1.22
Arouca xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Boavista and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Boavista and 1.22 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boavista's recent record stands at 16W 11D 18L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 17L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Boavista against 1.33 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 9W 8D 5L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 5W 9D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boavista are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Arouca in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Arouca have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Arouca away?
Boavista's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.59 PPG; Arouca away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Boavista or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Arouca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Arouca have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 0-4 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Boavista
1
Draws
5
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Arouca?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 2, Arouca have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Arouca 4-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 68%, Arouca 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Boavista) and 23% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Arouca in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Boavista's games and 46% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Boavista's recent games and 23% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Arouca tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Arouca in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arouca run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Boavista 0-4 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.52 xG and Arouca 1.22 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Arouca outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against Arouca attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 44% | Draw 25% | Arouca 31%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 60%, Arouca 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Arouca's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.31 PPG, Arouca 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.