Benfica 2-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Benfica at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Benfica face Sporting CP.

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Match Analysis

Benfica host Sporting CP at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Benfica's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sporting CP stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Sporting CP have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.80 (Sporting CP). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Benfica, 1 for Sporting CP and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Benfica 2–2 Sporting CP — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

Sporting CP in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 36% versus Sporting CP 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 59% | Sporting CP 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.37 xG and Sporting CP 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.155 / defence 0.720 | Sporting CP attack 1.251 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.245. Sporting CP bring a tight defence (rating 0.785, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Benfica's projected output down. Sporting CP have an above-average attack rating of 1.251, which lifts their away xG to 1.12. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.720), which is pulling Sporting CP's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 44 games and Sporting CP's last 44.

Result probabilities: Benfica 42% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 31%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.36 | Draw 3.73 | Sporting CP 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Benfica 30% (last 10 home games) | Sporting CP 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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