Famalicao 1-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 March 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Boavista have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Famalicao against 0.90 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Famalicao have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Boavista in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 50% | Boavista 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.53 xG and Boavista 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.940 / defence 1.113 | Boavista attack 0.878 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.268. Data: 56 Famalicao games / 57 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 26% | Boavista 31%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Boavista 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 60% | Boavista 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 26% | Boavista 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Famalicao 1.53 / Boavista 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.940 / def 1.113 | Boavista attack 0.878 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Boavista xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Boavista kick off?
Famalicao vs Boavista kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Famalicao 1 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Famalicao vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Boavista part of?
Famalicao vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 44% chance of winning, Boavista a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Famalicao and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
Record (5 meetings): Famalicao 3W | Draws 1 | Boavista 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.94x the league average against Boavista's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.88x) against Famalicao's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.90
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.77
1.24
Boavista xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.24 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 13D 24L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 17W 14D 25L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Famalicao against 1.16 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (13W 4D 10L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 6W 4D 17L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.29 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Boavista have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Boavista away?
Famalicao's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.59 PPG; Boavista away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Famalicao
2
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Boavista have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Boavista 0-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Boavista?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Boavista 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Famalicao) and 63% (Boavista). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 26% of games; Boavista in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Famalicao's games and 63% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Famalicao's matches and 63% of Boavista's.
Do Famalicao and Boavista tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Boavista in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Boavista share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and Boavista finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.53 xG and Boavista 1.24 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Boavista attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 44% | Draw 26% | Boavista 31%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 50%, Boavista 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.25 PPG, Boavista 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.