Boavista 1-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Moreirense at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boavista host Moreirense at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boavista stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Boavista have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Moreirense — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Boavista 0.90 PPG, Moreirense 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Boavista, 0 for Moreirense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Boavista in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Moreirense in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 71% versus Moreirense 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 58% | Moreirense 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.04 xG and Moreirense 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.766 / defence 1.408 | Moreirense attack 0.799 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.266. Boavista's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Boavista games / 24 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 27% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 45%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Moreirense 2.22. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Boavista dominate the H2H record, yet Moreirense are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Moreirense are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 70% | Moreirense 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 27% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Boavista 1.04 / Moreirense 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.766 / def 1.408 | Moreirense attack 0.799 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Moreirense xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Moreirense kick off?
Boavista vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Moreirense?
Boavista 1 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Boavista vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Moreirense part of?
Boavista vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 27% chance of winning, Moreirense a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Boavista and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Moreirense?
Record (3 meetings): Boavista 2W | Draws 1 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Boavista and Moreirense in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Moreirense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Boavista's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
27%
3.68
27%
3.64
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.47
1.43
Moreirense xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Boavista and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Boavista and 1.43 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Boavista have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 7D 11L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Moreirense's form line: 11W 6D 7L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Moreirense are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boavista.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Boavista have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
On the road, Moreirense have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.12 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Moreirense in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.08 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Boavista or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Moreirense in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boavista and Moreirense runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Moreirense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Boavista's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Boavista
1
Draws
2
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Moreirense?
From 6 meetings on record, Boavista have won 3, Moreirense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Moreirense 1-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Moreirense?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 75%, Moreirense 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Boavista) and 42% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Moreirense in 50%; Moreirense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Boavista's recent matches and 25% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Boavista's recent games and 42% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Moreirense tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boavista defy the odds to beat Moreirense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Moreirense 1-0 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.04 xG and Moreirense 1.43 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against Moreirense attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 27% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 45%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 58%, Moreirense 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Moreirense's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Boavista winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.