Widzew Łódź 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Widzew Łódź, 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Pogon Szczecin in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–2 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 46% | Pogon Szczecin 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Widzew Łódź surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Pogon Szczecin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 0.78 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.784 / defence 1.062 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.005 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.249. Widzew Łódź's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.696, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Widzew Łódź's projected output down. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 52 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 52.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 20% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 48%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 4.95 | Draw 3.17 | Pogon Szczecin 2.08. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 30% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 20% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Widzew Łódź 0.78 / Pogon Szczecin 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.784 / def 1.062 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.005 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Pogon Szczecin xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 20% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.78) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.00x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 52 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
20%
4.95
32%
3.17
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.11
1.33
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
5%
18.77
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.33 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 12D 23L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.67 PPG from 52 outings (25W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 10W 3D 12L across their last 25 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (11W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.71 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.32 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Widzew Łódź 0-4 Pogon Szczecin on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
7
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Widzew Łódź 3-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 44%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 44% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 32%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 28% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 44% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Widzew Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 0.78 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.33 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 20% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 48%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 46%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.