Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pogon Szczecin face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Warta Poznań have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Warta Poznań's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Pogon Szczecin's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Warta Poznań managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Warta Poznań — a Pogon Szczecin win.
The head-to-head data gives Pogon Szczecin an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 57% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Warta Poznań 29%). Note also that Warta Poznań surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.58 xG and Warta Poznań 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.298 / defence 1.165 | Warta Poznań attack 0.982 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.254. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack rating of 1.298 — their 1.58 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 51 games and Warta Poznań's last 51.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 39% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.55 | Draw 3.62 | Warta Poznań 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Warta Poznań's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 60% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 39% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.58 / Warta Poznań 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.298 / def 1.165 | Warta Poznań attack 0.982 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Warta Poznań xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 8 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 3 Warta Poznań.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 18) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 39% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.98x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 51 games and Warta Poznań's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.62
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.01
1.44
Warta Poznań xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.44 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 11D 15L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 16W 15D 20L from 51 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 25 home games (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 10W 5D 10L from their last 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.06 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 11D 15L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 16W 15D 20L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.76 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 December 2023: Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 64%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Pogon Szczecin) and 28% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 40%; Warta Poznań in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 28% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 68% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 18, as Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.58 xG and Warta Poznań 1.44 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 / defence 1.17 against Warta Poznań attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 39% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Warta Poznań 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.