Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Radomiak Radom take on Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka Radom: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Radomiak Radom) versus 1.50 (Lech Poznan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Lech Poznan and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Lech Poznan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 40% versus Lech Poznan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.816 / defence 0.892 | Lech Poznan attack 0.840 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.255. Data: 52 Radomiak Radom games / 52 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Lech Poznan 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 60% | Lech Poznan 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.01 / Lech Poznan 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.816 / def 0.892 | Lech Poznan attack 0.840 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lech Poznan xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Lech Poznan 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Lech Poznan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.82x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
35%
2.88
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.95
0.94
Lech Poznan xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.94 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 13D 21L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 26W 15D 11L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 11W 11D 3L from 25 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.12 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 40%, Lech Poznan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Radomiak Radom) and 48% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 40%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 56% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 48% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 19, as Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 0.94 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lech Poznan outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Lech Poznan attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.