ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruch Chorzów at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ruch Chorzów travel to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz to take on ŁKS Łódź. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 December 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2W 3D 4L at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Ruch Chorzów — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruch Chorzów have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ŁKS Łódź 0.30 PPG, Ruch Chorzów 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Ruch Chorzów 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Ruch Chorzów winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 41% versus Ruch Chorzów 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 53% | Ruch Chorzów 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.54 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.764 / defence 1.459 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.943 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.265. ŁKS Łódź's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ruch Chorzów bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing ŁKS Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 ŁKS Łódź games / 18 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 33% | Draw 25% | Ruch Chorzów 42%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Ruch Chorzów 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruch Chorzów are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruch Chorzów offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: ŁKS Łódź 44% | Ruch Chorzów 56%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 33% | Draw 25% | Ruch Chorzów 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.54 / Ruch Chorzów 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.764 / def 1.459 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.943 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Ruch Chorzów (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Ruch Chorzów xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
ŁKS Łódź 1 - 1 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 33% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ruch Chorzów the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Ruch Chorzów 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ŁKS Łódź's attack at 0.76x the league average against Ruch Chorzów's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruch Chorzów's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruch Chorzów Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.94
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
3.28
1.74
Ruch Chorzów xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
6%
17.26
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.74 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ŁKS Łódź come into this having played 17 games, going 2W 3D 12L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruch Chorzów sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (1W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ŁKS Łódź on 0.53 PPG, Ruch Chorzów on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
ŁKS Łódź's home form reads 1W 3D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruch Chorzów have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 3D 12L in their last 17 games (0.53 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 9D 7L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 0.75 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Ruch Chorzów have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2023, when ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów?
Ruch Chorzów have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 38%, Ruch Chorzów 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (ŁKS Łódź) and 62% (Ruch Chorzów).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 50% of games; Ruch Chorzów in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Ruch Chorzów?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Ruch Chorzów's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 62% of Ruch Chorzów's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź and Ruch Chorzów finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.54 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.74 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.76 / defence 1.46 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.94 / defence 1.40, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 33% | Draw 25% | Ruch Chorzów 42%, with Ruch Chorzów to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 53%, Ruch Chorzów 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ŁKS Łódź 0.53 PPG, Ruch Chorzów 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.