Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tarczyński Arena plays host to Slask Wroclaw versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Slask Wroclaw. A 0.80 PPG lead over Raków Częstochowa (2.60 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Slask Wroclaw register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Raków Częstochowa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Raków Częstochowa hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 1–4 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 57% versus Raków Częstochowa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 45% | Raków Częstochowa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.208 / defence 0.852 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.170 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.251. Data: 50 Slask Wroclaw games / 49 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 52% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 23%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Raków Częstochowa 4.35. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa lead the H2H ledger, but Slask Wroclaw carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 70% | Raków Częstochowa 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 52% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.95 / Raków Częstochowa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.208 / def 0.852 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.170 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Raków Częstochowa xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 52% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (4 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.17x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.05
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
3.19
1.25
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
3%
30.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.25 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 20W 13D 16L from 49 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 8L across 49 games — 2.10 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 11W 5D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.92 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 10D 8L in their last 49 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.61 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 1-4 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa?
From 9 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 65%, Raków Częstochowa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Slask Wroclaw) and 56% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 30%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 26% of games; Raków Częstochowa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 56% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Slask Wroclaw's matches and 56% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 52% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 23%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 45%, Raków Częstochowa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.