Radomiak Radom 0-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka Radom: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slask Wroclaw are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Slask Wroclaw 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Slask Wroclaw 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.883 / defence 0.937 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.075 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.189. Data: 49 Radomiak Radom games / 49 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 29% | Draw 34% | Slask Wroclaw 37%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Slask Wroclaw 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Radomiak Radom dominate the H2H record, yet Slask Wroclaw are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 60% | Slask Wroclaw 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 29% | Draw 34% | Slask Wroclaw 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.05 / Slask Wroclaw 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.883 / def 0.937 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.075 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 29% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.88x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
29%
3.42
34%
2.93
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.25
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.20 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 17W 12D 20L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 19W 14D 16L from 49 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.29 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 12D 20L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 14D 16L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.17 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 42%, Slask Wroclaw 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Radomiak Radom and 33% for Slask Wroclaw.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 33% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 29% | Draw 34% | Slask Wroclaw 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Slask Wroclaw 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.