Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.20 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Legia Warszawa have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Zaglebie Lubin's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 45% versus Legia Warszawa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Legia Warszawa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.947 / defence 0.906 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.981 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.231. Data: 50 Zaglebie Lubin games / 49 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Legia Warszawa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 / Legia Warszawa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.947 / def 0.906 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.981 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.98x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.38
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Legia Warszawa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.09 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 26W 13D 10L from 49 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zaglebie Lubin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 9W 6D 8L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.63 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 13D 10L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.30 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 30%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Legia Warszawa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Legia Warszawa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.