Stal Mielec 1-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stal Mielec at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host ŁKS Łódź at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Stal Mielec — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Stal Mielec are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 52% versus ŁKS Łódź 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 57% | ŁKS Łódź 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.84 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / defence 0.872 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.808 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.226. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Stal Mielec games / 21 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 58% | Draw 27% | ŁKS Łódź 15%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | ŁKS Łódź 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stal Mielec (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 60% | ŁKS Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 58% | Draw 27% | ŁKS Łódź 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Stal Mielec 1.84 / ŁKS Łódź 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / def 0.872 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.808 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.86
ŁKS Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź?
Stal Mielec 1 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 58% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.92x the league average against ŁKS Łódź's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.72
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.71
0.86
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
42.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.86 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 5D 8L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ŁKS Łódź sit at 0.48 PPG from 21 outings (2W 4D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stal Mielec's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, ŁKS Łódź have taken 0.00 points per game from 10 outings (0W 0D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.76 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 15L in their last 21 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.80 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
0
Draws
1
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 60%, ŁKS Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stal Mielec and 70% for ŁKS Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec have failed to score in 30% of games; ŁKS Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play ŁKS Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stal Mielec's games and 50% of ŁKS Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stal Mielec's matches and 70% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Stal Mielec and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stal Mielec edge out ŁKS Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.84 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.86 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec fell 0.8 short of their projected output. ŁKS Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 58% | Draw 27% | ŁKS Łódź 15%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 57%, ŁKS Łódź 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.48. Form held, and they took the win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.