1. FC Köln 3-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as 1. FC Köln take on Union Berlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and Union Berlin meet at RheinEnergieSTADION in Bundesliga (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Köln's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Berlin have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 0.60 for Union Berlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from 1. FC Köln's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Union Berlin in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Union Berlin have the stronger record — 4 wins to 1. FC Köln's 0, with 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 1. FC Köln 0–2 Union Berlin — a Union Berlin win.
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 54% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 41% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 0.76 xG and Union Berlin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.583 / defence 1.080 | Union Berlin attack 0.507 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.409. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.583 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Union Berlin bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling 1. FC Köln's projected output down. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.507 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from 1. FC Köln's last 66 games and Union Berlin's last 66.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 29% | Draw 41% | Union Berlin 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.42 | Draw 2.46 | Union Berlin 3.33. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — 1. FC Köln's lower xG of 0.76 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.53 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Köln's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Köln 30% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 29% | Draw 41% | Union Berlin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% (Under 80%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG 1. FC Köln 0.76 / Union Berlin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.583 / def 1.080 | Union Berlin attack 0.507 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Union Berlin xG
31%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
1. FC Köln 3 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin part of?
1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 29% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 30% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (80%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.58x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.51x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Köln's last 66 games and Union Berlin's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
41%
2.46
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
1.53
0.77
Union Berlin xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.77 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Köln come into this having played 66 games, going 14W 24D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.39 PPG from 66 outings (26W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.39 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Köln's home form reads 9W 9D 15L across their last 33 home games, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 6D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.21 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
1. FC Köln (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Köln
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 14W 24D 28L in their last 66 games (1.00 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 26W 14D 26L in their last 66 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Union Berlin away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.09 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
4
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Köln have won 1, Union Berlin have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 48%, Union Berlin 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (1. FC Köln) and 42% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 46% of games; Union Berlin in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 36% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 42% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 61% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Union Berlin 3-2 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 0.76 xG and Union Berlin 0.77 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.58 / defence 1.08 against Union Berlin attack 0.51 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 29% | Draw 41% | Union Berlin 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 41%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.00 PPG, Union Berlin 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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