Union Berlin 3-4 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face VfL Bochum.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Union Berlin, 0.80 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Union Berlin 0–3 VfL Bochum — a VfL Bochum win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 42% versus VfL Bochum 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | VfL Bochum 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.62 xG and VfL Bochum 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.769 / defence 1.134 | VfL Bochum attack 0.718 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.360. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.62. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. VfL Bochum's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 65 games and VfL Bochum's last 65.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 3.43 | VfL Bochum 4.20. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 50% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Union Berlin 1.62 / VfL Bochum 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.769 / def 1.134 | VfL Bochum attack 0.718 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
VfL Bochum xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Union Berlin 3 - 4 VfL Bochum.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.77) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.72x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 65 games and VfL Bochum's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.43
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.72
1.11
VfL Bochum xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
21.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.11 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 26W 14D 25L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 16W 17D 32L from 65 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 7D 22L from their last 32 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.18 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum in 60%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfL Bochum
Current Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfL Bochum
Current Season
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 14D 25L in their last 65 games (1.42 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 16W 17D 32L in their last 65 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Bochum away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.84 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won VfL Bochum 3-0 Union Berlin on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 47%, VfL Bochum 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 59% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 28% of games; VfL Bochum in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and VfL Bochum matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 47% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 59% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 81% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat Union Berlin 3-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.62 xG and VfL Bochum 1.11 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Bochum outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against VfL Bochum attack 0.72 / defence 1.27, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, VfL Bochum 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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