Slovan Liberec 3-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovan Liberec face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Slovan Liberec have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FK Jablonec away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for FK Jablonec and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Slovan Liberec 1–1 FK Jablonec — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 60% and FK Jablonec 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 56% | FK Jablonec 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.216 / defence 0.959 | FK Jablonec attack 1.034 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 51 games and FK Jablonec's last 51.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 59% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 20%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.70 | Draw 4.71 | FK Jablonec 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 40% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 59% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Slovan Liberec 2.21 / FK Jablonec 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.216 / def 0.959 | FK Jablonec attack 1.034 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Slovan Liberec 3 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 59% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.22x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.03x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 51 games and FK Jablonec's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.71
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.45
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
11%
9.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
2%
45.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.24 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 15D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.15 PPG from 55 outings (15W 18D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.15 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FK Jablonec in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 15W 18D 22L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.61 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won Slovan Liberec 0-5 FK Jablonec on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: FK Jablonec 1-2 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 57%, FK Jablonec 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Slovan Liberec) and 61% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Slovan Liberec's games and 61% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 61% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 75% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 22, as Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 59% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 20%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 56%, FK Jablonec 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.31 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.