FK Jablonec 5-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice encounter.

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Analysis

České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FK Jablonec's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

České Budějovice have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward FK Jablonec. A 0.50 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, České Budějovice edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended FK Jablonec 1–2 České Budějovice — a České Budějovice win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 62% versus České Budějovice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 52% | České Budějovice 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.75 xG and České Budějovice 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.934 / defence 0.973 | České Budějovice attack 0.712 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.225. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FK Jablonec's projected output up. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.712 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 50 games and České Budějovice's last 50.

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 59% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 18%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.70 | Draw 4.27 | České Budějovice 5.60. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 50% (last 10 away games).

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