FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.60 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended FK Jablonec 0–1 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 64% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 55% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.69 xG and Hradec Králové 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.158 / defence 1.066 | Hradec Králové attack 0.710 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.259. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 52 games and Hradec Králové's last 52.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 53% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 20%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.88 | Draw 3.67 | Hradec Králové 5.08. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 53% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.69 / Hradec Králové 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.158 / def 1.066 | Hradec Králové attack 0.710 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 53% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 52 games and Hradec Králové's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.67
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.64
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
27.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.95 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 19D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.14 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 11D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.52 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 3-0 Hradec Králové.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Hradec Králové 1-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 48% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 48% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 67% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 23, as FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.69 xG and Hradec Králové 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 53% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 20%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 55%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.14 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.