Hradec Králové 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 0.80 (Mlada Boleslav). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Mlada Boleslav in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 2 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 53% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 51% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.995 / defence 1.114 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.074 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Data: 51 Hradec Králové games / 51 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 34%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 70% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Hradec Králové 1.68 / Mlada Boleslav 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.995 / def 1.114 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.074 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 42% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
42%
2.41
25%
4.02
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.17
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.49 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 13D 23L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 17W 15D 21L from 53 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.21 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 8W 4D 14L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.43 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 15D 21L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.23 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 58%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 58% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hradec Králové's games and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hradec Králové's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 22, as Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 34%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 51%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.21 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.