České Budějovice 0-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as České Budějovice face Teplice.

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Full Analysis

Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

České Budějovice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 0.90 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for České Budějovice, 2 for Teplice and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended České Budějovice 0–3 Teplice — a Teplice win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 52% versus Teplice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Teplice 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.42 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.872 / defence 1.103 | Teplice attack 0.901 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.162. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 44 games and Teplice's last 44.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 26% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.32 | Draw 3.80 | Teplice 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 70% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 60% (last 10 away games).

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