Slavia Praha 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slavia Praha and České Budějovice meet at Fortuna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.10 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Slavia Praha, 1 for České Budějovice and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 49% versus České Budějovice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.24 xG and České Budějovice 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.200 / defence 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.712 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.174. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Slavia Praha games / 45 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 10%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | České Budějovice 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 50% | České Budějovice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 45% | xG Slavia Praha 2.24 / České Budějovice 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.200 / def 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.712 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.69
České Budějovice xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Slavia Praha 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice part of?
Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 73% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slavia Praha and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
Record (5 meetings): Slavia Praha 3W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.20) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.71x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
73%
1.38
17%
5.74
10%
10.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.93
0.69
České Budějovice xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
10.01
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
94.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.69 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 33W 9D 5L from 47 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 27L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 20W 2D 1L from 23 games — 2.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 4W 4D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.11 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 33W 9D 5L in their last 47 games (2.30 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 27L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or České Budějovice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.70 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-1 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 6, České Budějovice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 48%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Slavia Praha and 61% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; České Budějovice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 56% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Slavia Praha's matches and 61% of České Budějovice's.
Do Slavia Praha and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.24 xG and České Budějovice 0.69 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 10%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
České Budějovice's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.