Teplice 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Teplice have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Bohemians 1905 in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Teplice 1W, Bohemians 1905 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 58% versus Bohemians 1905 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Bohemians 1905 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.86 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.634 / defence 0.673 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.782 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.179. Teplice's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Teplice games / 45 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Bohemians 1905 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.48. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.48 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Bohemians 1905's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Bohemians 1905 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 1905 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 27% | xG Teplice 0.86 / Bohemians 1905 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.634 / def 0.673 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.782 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Teplice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Bohemians 1905 xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Teplice 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 39% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Teplice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.63x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.78x) against Teplice's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
39%
2.57
37%
2.74
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.48
0.62
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.74
73%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.7 | 14.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Teplice and 0.62 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 1.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 13D 21L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 21W 9D 20L from 50 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Teplice against 1.44 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (9W 10D 6L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 2D 11L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.36 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 9D 20L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.48 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Teplice or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Bohemians 1905 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 56% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 32%; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 56% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 16, as Teplice and Bohemians 1905 drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.86 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.62 xG, a combined 1.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.63 / defence 0.67 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 39% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 1905 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.