Baník Ostrava 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sparta Praha travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Praha stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baník Ostrava at 2.00 PPG versus Sparta Praha's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Baník Ostrava have won 0, Sparta Praha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 0–3 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 59% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | Sparta Praha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.29 xG and Sparta Praha 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.984 / defence 0.836 | Sparta Praha attack 1.369 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.122. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.369, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 44 games and Sparta Praha's last 44.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 37%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.71 | Draw 3.77 | Sparta Praha 2.74. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Baník Ostrava 37% and Sparta Praha 37%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.29 / Sparta Praha 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.984 / def 0.836 | Sparta Praha attack 1.369 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Sparta Praha xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 37% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (0.98) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 44 games and Sparta Praha's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.77
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.58
1.28
Sparta Praha xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.28 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 12D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.31 PPG from 49 outings (34W 11D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 3D 9L across their last 24 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 2.17 points per game from their last 24 away games (15W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.31 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 34W 11D 4L in their last 49 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.62 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2023, when Sparta Praha won Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 54%, Sparta Praha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Baník Ostrava) and 46% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 54% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 46% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 79% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.29 xG and Sparta Praha 1.28 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.98 / defence 0.84 against Sparta Praha attack 1.37 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 37%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, Sparta Praha 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.