Chonburi FC 0-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Port FC at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Port FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Port FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chonburi FC at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Port FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Port FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Chonburi FC 1–3 Port FC — a Port FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Chonburi FC trading profile (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Port FC trading profile (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 56% and Port FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 51% | Port FC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.20 xG and Port FC 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.738 / defence 1.090 | Port FC attack 1.259 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.271. Chonburi FC's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Port FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.259, which lifts their away xG to 1.74. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 41 games and Port FC's last 42.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.89 | Draw 4.03 | Port FC 2.02. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 100% (last 10 away games).

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