Zenit 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saint-Petersburg Stadium plays host to Zenit versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Zenit (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Saint-Petersburg Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
Spartak Moscow have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Zenit, 1.70 for Spartak Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Zenit are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Zenit winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zenit and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Spartak Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 50% versus Spartak Moscow 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 58% | Spartak Moscow 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.81 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.173 / defence 0.936 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.037 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 0.958. Data: 48 Zenit games / 48 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 57% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 18%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Spartak Moscow 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zenit 50% | Spartak Moscow 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 57% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Zenit 1.81 / Spartak Moscow 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.173 / def 0.936 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.037 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.408 / away 0.958 • Poisson stance: Zenit (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Spartak Moscow xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Zenit 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 57% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zenit and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Zenit 4W | Draws 1 | Spartak Moscow 0W.
What form are Zenit and Spartak Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.17) and Spartak Moscow's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (1.04x) against Zenit's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.89
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.74
0.93
Spartak Moscow xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
34.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Zenit and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Zenit and 0.93 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zenit come into this having played 48 games, going 32W 10D 6L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (24W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Zenit's home form reads 18W 2D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zenit are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.81 scored and 1.29 conceded. Spartak Moscow's attacking output running into Zenit's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow in 60%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 32W 10D 6L in their last 48 games (2.21 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Zenit's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.43 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Zenit or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 7-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zenit have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
4
Draws
1
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 5, Spartak Moscow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Spartak Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 52%, Spartak Moscow 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Zenit and 52% for Spartak Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Spartak Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Zenit's games and 65% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Zenit's matches and 52% of Spartak Moscow's.
Do Zenit and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zenit's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Zenit and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.81 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.93 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zenit fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.17 / defence 0.94 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 57% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 18%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 58%, Spartak Moscow 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.