Benfica 3-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Benfica face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Famalicao travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 December 2023 at 18:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Benfica have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Benfica at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Famalicao — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Famalicao have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Benfica hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Famalicao and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2023, ended Benfica 2–0 Famalicao — a Benfica win.
The head-to-head data gives Benfica an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Famalicao trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 38% versus Famalicao 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 56% | Famalicao 48%). Note also that Famalicao surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Benfica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.37 xG and Famalicao 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.072 / defence 0.764 | Famalicao attack 0.794 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.247. Famalicao's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Famalicao's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 48 games and Famalicao's last 48.
Result probabilities: Benfica 52% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 21%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.94 | Draw 3.59 | Famalicao 4.85. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 52% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Benfica 1.37 / Famalicao 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.072 / def 0.764 | Famalicao attack 0.794 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Benfica (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Famalicao xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Benfica vs Famalicao FAQs
What time does Benfica vs Famalicao kick off?
Benfica vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Friday 29 December 2023 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Benfica 3 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Benfica vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Famalicao part of?
Benfica vs Famalicao is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 52% chance of winning, Famalicao a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Benfica and Famalicao will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Benfica vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.07x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Benfica's last 48 games and Famalicao's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.59
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.13
0.76
Famalicao xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Benfica vs Famalicao Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Benfica and 0.76 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 48 games, going 38W 6D 4L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.29 PPG from 48 outings (17W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 19W 3D 1L across their last 23 home games, a 2.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 23 away games (5W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.08 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
Benfica (Home) vs Famalicao (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Benfica
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Benfica vs Famalicao Form FAQs
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 38W 6D 4L in their last 48 games (2.50 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Famalicao away?
Benfica's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.61 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Benfica or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Famalicao in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won Benfica 4-0 Famalicao.
Benfica's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Benfica
2
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Benfica vs Famalicao H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Benfica have won 6, Famalicao have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Famalicao last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Famalicao?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 48%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Benfica) and 48% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Famalicao in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Benfica vs Famalicao Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Benfica and Famalicao matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Benfica's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Benfica and Famalicao matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Benfica's matches and 48% of Famalicao's.
Do Benfica and Famalicao matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Benfica's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Famalicao 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.37 xG and Famalicao 0.76 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.07 / defence 0.76 against Famalicao attack 0.79 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 52% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 21%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 56%, Famalicao 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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