Sandefjord 2-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sandefjord face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Sandefjord.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 61% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 61% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.20 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.039 / defence 1.099 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sandefjord games / 44 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 22% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 56%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 22% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Sandefjord 1.20 / Bodo/Glimt 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.039 / def 1.099 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Bodo/Glimt xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 2 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 22% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (6 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 5W.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
22%
4.56
22%
4.63
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.22
2.03
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
34.63
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sandefjord and 2.03 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 11D 23L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.34 PPG from 44 outings (32W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.41 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.24 points per game from 21 outings (15W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 7D 5L in their last 44 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.38 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 57%, Bodo/Glimt 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sandefjord and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sandefjord's games and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sandefjord's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.20 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.03 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 22% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 56%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 61%, Bodo/Glimt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.