Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Brann have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.10 for Brann. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–4 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Brann — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 56% versus Brann 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 63% | Brann 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG and Brann 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.162 / defence 0.752 | Brann attack 1.040 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.506. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Bodo/Glimt games / 44 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Brann 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.36 / Brann 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.162 / def 0.752 | Brann attack 1.040 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Brann xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 1 Brann.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 41% chance of winning, Brann a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Record (5 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 2 | Brann 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Brann (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.16) and Brann's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.04x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.76
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.54
1.18
Brann xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.18 for Brann, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 31W 7D 5L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 26W 8D 9L from 43 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.00 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.38 PPG from 21 outings (15W 5D 1L).
On the road, Brann have gone 10W 5D 6L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.72 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 7D 5L in their last 43 games (2.33 PPG), while Brann have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Brann away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.38 PPG; Brann away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Brann in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, Brann have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Brann 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bodo/Glimt) and 48% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 52% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 48% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Brann tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Brann in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Brann 5-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG and Brann 1.18 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 0.75 against Brann attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 63%, Brann 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodo/Glimt 2.33 PPG, Brann 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodo/Glimt win broke the near-deadlock. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.