Lillestrom 3-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Stromsgodset travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Lillestrom have won 4, Stromsgodset 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 56% versus Stromsgodset 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 63% | Stromsgodset 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.18 xG and Stromsgodset 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.857 / defence 1.262 | Stromsgodset attack 0.878 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Data: 43 Lillestrom games / 43 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 28% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 47%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 2.13. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lillestrom 40% | Stromsgodset 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 28% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lillestrom 1.18 / Stromsgodset 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.857 / def 1.262 | Stromsgodset attack 0.878 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Stromsgodset xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Lillestrom 3 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset part of?
Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 28% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
Record (6 meetings): Lillestrom 4W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.86x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
28%
3.58
25%
3.99
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.79
1.60
Stromsgodset xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.80
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.60 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 5D 20L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 18W 7D 18L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.37 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (10W 2D 9L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.21 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 18W 5D 20L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Stromsgodset away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.52 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
0
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 62%, Stromsgodset 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Lillestrom) and 33% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 38% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Lillestrom's recent games and 33% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Stromsgodset 3-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.18 xG and Stromsgodset 1.60 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against Stromsgodset attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 28% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 47%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 63%, Stromsgodset 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.37 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.