Fredrikstad 0-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Molde make the trip to Nye Fredrikstad Stadion to face Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Fredrikstad (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Molde have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Fredrikstad, 1.80 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Molde — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 46% versus Molde 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 46% | Molde 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.04 xG and Molde 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.931 / defence 0.940 | Molde attack 1.247 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Molde's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Fredrikstad games / 44 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 23% | Draw 24% | Molde 53%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 1.89. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 23% | Draw 24% | Molde 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Fredrikstad 1.04 / Molde 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.931 / def 0.940 | Molde attack 1.247 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Molde (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Molde xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Molde kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Fredrikstad 0 - 0 Molde.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Molde part of?
Fredrikstad vs Molde is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 23% chance of winning, Molde a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fredrikstad and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Molde in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.93) and Molde's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.25x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 13/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
23%
4.36
24%
4.10
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.73
1.70
Molde xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
4%
23.80
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.70 for Molde, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fredrikstad come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 4D 3L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.85 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fredrikstad's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 62%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Molde in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Molde in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Molde have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.60 PPG; Molde away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Molde in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fredrikstad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 6-1 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
1
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Molde?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Molde have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Molde 1-2 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Molde?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 40%, Molde 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 60% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Molde in 40%; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 60% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 60% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Molde tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Molde in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fredrikstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Molde finished level at 0-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.04 xG and Molde 1.70 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Molde attack 1.25 / defence 0.78, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 23% | Draw 24% | Molde 53%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 46%, Molde 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Molde's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.69 PPG, Molde 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.