Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wahda FC face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Wahda FC welcome Al-Wasl FC to Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 22 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Wahda FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Wasl FC have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Wahda FC) versus 1.80 (Al-Wasl FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wahda FC's games and 60% of Al-Wasl FC's (from Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al-Wasl FC and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2024, ended Al Wahda FC 4–1 Al-Wasl FC — a Al Wahda FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Wahda FC in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 67% and Al-Wasl FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 61% | Al-Wasl FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.79 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.081 / defence 0.926 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.041 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.804 / away 1.676. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 33 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 33.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 40% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.48 | Draw 3.71 | Al-Wasl FC 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 40% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.79 / Al-Wasl FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.081 / def 0.926 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.041 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.804 / away 1.676 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al-Wasl FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 40% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 33 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.71
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.41
1.62
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.62 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 33 games, going 16W 8D 9L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Al-Wasl FC sit at 2.30 PPG from 33 outings (23W 7D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 8W 5D 3L across their last 16 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Wasl FC have taken 2.31 points per game from their last 16 away games (11W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.52 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Al-Wasl FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 games (1.70 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 23W 7D 3L in their last 33 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 May 2024, when Al Wahda FC won Al-Wasl FC 1-4 Al Wahda FC.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Wahda FC
6
Draws
2
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-3 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 75%, Al-Wasl FC at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Wahda FC and 75% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Wahda FC's games and 69% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 75% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 81% of Al-Wasl FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC finished level at 2-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.79 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 40% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 33%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 61%, Al-Wasl FC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.