Al Bataeh 1-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Thursday 21 November 2024 at 12:40 UK time.
Current Form
Al Bataeh's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Bataeh's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Khorfakkan have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Khorfakkan's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al Bataeh against 0.90 for Khorfakkan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Al Bataeh's games and 90% of Khorfakkan's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Khorfakkan and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Al Bataeh 3–0 Khorfakkan — a Al Bataeh win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Bataeh — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 73% and Khorfakkan 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 73% | Khorfakkan 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Bataeh surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Khorfakkan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 2.49 xG and Khorfakkan 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.033 / defence 1.249 | Khorfakkan attack 1.148 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.851 / away 1.690. Khorfakkan's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Bataeh's projected output up. Al Bataeh's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Khorfakkan's projected output up. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 33 games and Khorfakkan's last 33.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.42 | Draw 5.03 | Khorfakkan 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS Yes probability 84% | Total xG 4.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% — both xG figures (2.49 / 2.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 87% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 4.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 84% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 90% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 November 2024 at 12:40 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% (Under 13%) | BTTS Yes 84% (No 16%) | xG Al Bataeh 2.49 / Khorfakkan 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.033 / def 1.249 | Khorfakkan attack 1.148 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.851 / away 1.690 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.42
Khorfakkan xG
84%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:40 UK time on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 41% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 39% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 1.03x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (1.15x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.42.
These ratings are built from Al Bataeh's last 33 games and Khorfakkan's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-2 (5.6%), 2-1 (5.5%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 18% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
41%
2.42
20%
5.03
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Most likely
3 – 2
5.6%
Home win
2 – 1
5.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
4.92
2.42
Khorfakkan xG
2.42
41%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.19
16%
BTTS No
6.37
Clean Sheet
9%
11.28
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
4%
27.32
3%
31.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.7%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.42 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 4.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Bataeh come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Al Bataeh against 0.94 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Bataeh's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across their last 16 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 16 away games (3W 4D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.39 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 73%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al Bataeh (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Bataeh's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.06 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Bataeh on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Bataeh have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Al Bataeh, 81% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al Bataeh and 75% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Al Bataeh's games and 81% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al Bataeh's matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 2.49 xG and Khorfakkan 2.42 xG, a combined 4.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 1.25 against Khorfakkan attack 1.15 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 39%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 84% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 73%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.24 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.