Damac 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Dhamak Club Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Damac. A 0.80 PPG lead over Al Shabab (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al Shabab 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 53% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.98 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.315 / defence 0.910 | Al Shabab attack 0.777 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.414. Damac carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Damac games / 49 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 60% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 18%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Al Shabab 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Damac (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Al Shabab lead the H2H ledger, but Damac carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 80% | Al Shabab 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 60% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Damac 1.98 / Al Shabab 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.315 / def 0.910 | Al Shabab attack 0.777 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Damac (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Shabab kick off?
Damac vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Damac 0 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Damac vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Shabab part of?
Damac vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 60% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 3W.
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in?
Damac (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.31) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.78x) against Damac's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.48
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Damac xG
Total xG
2.98
1.00
Al Shabab xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
40.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Damac and 1.00 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 15D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.57 PPG from 49 outings (22W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Damac against 1.57 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Damac's home form reads 10W 9D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Shabab away?
Damac's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
3
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Damac, 71% for Al Shabab — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Damac and 62% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Damac's games and 71% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Damac's matches and 62% of Al Shabab's.
Do Damac and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.98 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Al Shabab attack 0.78 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 60% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 18%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 53%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.35 PPG, Al Shabab 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.