Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 36%, yet in-form Damac provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fateh vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Damac travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al-Fateh at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2023, ended Al-Fateh 2–2 Damac — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Damac in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Damac 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.23 xG and Damac 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.879 / defence 0.944 | Damac attack 0.918 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.401. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 50 games and Damac's last 50.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Damac 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.79 | Draw 3.46 | Damac 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 home games) | Damac 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Damac 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al-Fateh 1.23 / Damac 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.879 / def 0.944 | Damac attack 0.918 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Damac xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Damac a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fateh's last 50 games and Damac's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.46
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Damac xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fateh vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.21 for Damac, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 9D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.32 PPG from 50 outings (17W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.44 PPG, Damac on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across their last 25 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Damac
Blended
Al-Fateh (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fateh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Al-Fateh vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 21W 9D 20L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Damac have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Damac away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.32 PPG; Damac away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 26 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won Damac 0-3 Al-Fateh.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
6
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fateh vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fateh have won 3, Damac have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 February 2026: Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 48%, Damac 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fateh) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 32% of games; Damac in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fateh and Damac matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 52% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fateh and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 68% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Fateh and Damac drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.23 xG and Damac 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Damac attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Damac 35%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 60%, Damac 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.44 PPG, Damac 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.