Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Wehda Club at 63% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al Wehda Club host Al Taee at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Wehda Club — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Wehda Club's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al Taee have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Al Taee have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Wehda Club at 1.20 PPG versus Al Taee's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al Wehda Club: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Al Taee, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2023, ended Al Wehda Club 3–0 Al Taee — a Al Wehda Club win.

The head-to-head data gives Al Wehda Club an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Taee in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 49% versus Al Taee 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 49% | Al Taee 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.16 xG and Al Taee 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.219 / defence 1.044 | Al Taee attack 0.706 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.414. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Wehda Club's projected output up. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 49 games and Al Taee's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.59 | Draw 5.03 | Al Taee 5.78. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Wehda Club 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 30% (last 10 away games).

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