Al-Hazm 1-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al-Fayha.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Fayha travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 home games (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 3.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Fayha 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Al-Hazm 0–0 Al-Fayha — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 68% and Al-Fayha 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 58% | Al-Fayha 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.40 xG and Al-Fayha 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.813 / defence 1.622 | Al-Fayha attack 0.942 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.415. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.622 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 19 games and Al-Fayha's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.13 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fayha 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.40 / 2.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 9 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 56% (last 9 home games) | Al-Fayha 70% (last 10 away games).

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