Bari 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bari welcome Spezia to Stadio San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off is Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bari have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Bari have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Spezia — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Spezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Spezia's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bari's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Bari have won 1, Spezia 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Bari 1–1 Spezia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 39% | Spezia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.97 xG and Spezia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.757 / defence 1.217 | Spezia attack 0.855 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.052. Bari's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Bari's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Spezia's projected output up. Data: built from Bari's last 61 games and Spezia's last 61.
Result probabilities: Bari 31% | Draw 31% | Spezia 38%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.21 | Draw 3.20 | Spezia 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 60% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 31% | Draw 31% | Spezia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Bari 0.97 / Spezia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.757 / def 1.217 | Spezia attack 0.855 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Spezia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Spezia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Bari vs Spezia kick off?
Bari vs Spezia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Spezia?
Bari 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Bari vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Spezia part of?
Bari vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 31% chance of winning, Spezia a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bari and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Bari vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.76) and Spezia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 61 games and Spezia's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.20
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Bari xG
Total xG
2.06
1.09
Spezia xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bari and 1.09 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 14W 26D 21L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 19L across 61 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.11 PPG, Spezia on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 10W 13D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 8W 12D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.30 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Bari vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Spezia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 14W 26D 21L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Spezia have gone 22W 20D 19L in their last 61 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Spezia away?
Bari's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.43 PPG; Spezia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bari or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Spezia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Bari's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bari
4
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Spezia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Bari 0-0 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 63%, Spezia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Bari and 30% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 40%; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Bari's recent matches and 40% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bari and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bari's recent games and 30% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Bari's recent matches and 67% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 24, as Bari and Spezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.97 xG and Spezia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.76 / defence 1.22 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 31% | Draw 31% | Spezia 38%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 39%, Spezia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.11 PPG, Spezia 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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