Spezia 0-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spezia welcome Frosinone to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Frosinone's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Spezia's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Frosinone and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 37% | Frosinone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.93 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.802 / defence 1.081 | Frosinone attack 1.299 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.052. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Spezia games / 62 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Frosinone 2.04. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 70% | Frosinone 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 0.93 / Frosinone 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.802 / def 1.081 | Frosinone attack 1.299 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Frosinone kick off?
Spezia vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Frosinone?
Spezia 0 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Spezia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Frosinone part of?
Spezia vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 23% chance of winning, Frosinone a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Spezia and Frosinone in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
23%
4.31
28%
3.63
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.41
1.48
Frosinone xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Spezia and 1.48 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 21D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.48 PPG from 62 outings (23W 23D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.40 PPG, Frosinone on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spezia's home form reads 14W 8D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.52 points per game from 31 outings (12W 11D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.31 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 22W 21D 19L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 23W 23D 16L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Frosinone away?
Spezia's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.61 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Spezia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Frosinone in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Spezia's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Spezia 0-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 55%, Frosinone 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Spezia) and 36% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Frosinone in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Spezia's recent matches and 52% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Spezia's recent games and 36% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Frosinone tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.93 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Frosinone attack 1.30 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 37%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.40 PPG, Frosinone 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.