Bari 1-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio San Nicola — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sudtirol are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Bari 2W, Sudtirol 3W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 55% versus Sudtirol 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 39% | Sudtirol 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.70 xG and Sudtirol 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.698 / defence 1.121 | Sudtirol attack 0.799 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.052. Bari's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Bari games / 62 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 25% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 39%. Fair-value odds: Bari 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Sudtirol 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Bari's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 50% | Sudtirol 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 25% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Bari 0.70 / Sudtirol 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.698 / def 1.121 | Sudtirol attack 0.799 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sudtirol xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Bari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Bari 1 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Bari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sudtirol part of?
Bari vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 25% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Bari and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
Record (7 meetings): Bari 2W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 3W.
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in?
Bari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.70) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.80x) against Bari's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
25%
3.95
36%
2.80
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Bari xG
Total xG
1.64
0.94
Sudtirol xG
3.95
25%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Bari and 0.94 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Bari have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 14W 27D 21L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 18W 22D 22L from 62 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Bari against 1.23 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (10W 14D 7L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 7W 12D 12L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 14W 27D 21L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 22D 22L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sudtirol away?
Bari's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.42 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bari
4
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
From 10 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 61%, Sudtirol 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 42% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Bari's recent matches and 48% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 42% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Bari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Bari 1-2 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.70 xG and Sudtirol 0.94 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 25% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 39%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 39%, Sudtirol 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.11 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.