Empoli 1-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 45%, yet in-form Juve Stabia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Empoli at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juve Stabia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Juve Stabia are 0.60 PPG clear of Empoli over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Juve Stabia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Empoli 0–2 Juve Stabia — a Juve Stabia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 54% versus Juve Stabia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Juve Stabia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.923 / defence 0.995 | Juve Stabia attack 0.894 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.052. Data: built from Empoli's last 23 games and Juve Stabia's last 61.
Result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.24 | Draw 3.43 | Juve Stabia 3.82. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Empoli 60% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Empoli 1.31 / Juve Stabia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.923 / def 0.995 | Juve Stabia attack 0.894 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Empoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Juve Stabia xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Juve Stabia FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Empoli 1 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Empoli vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juve Stabia part of?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 45% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Juve Stabia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Empoli vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.92) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.89x) against Empoli's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 23 games and Juve Stabia's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.43
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.24
0.94
Juve Stabia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Juve Stabia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Empoli and 0.94 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Empoli have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 13W 20D 28L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Juve Stabia's form line: 22W 23D 16L from 61 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.93 PPG from their last 29 home games (5W 12D 12L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 5W 13D 11L from their last 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.11 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
Empoli (Home) vs Juve Stabia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Empoli vs Juve Stabia Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 20D 28L in their last 61 games (0.97 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 22W 23D 16L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juve Stabia away?
Juve Stabia's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.93 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Empoli or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Empoli
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Juve Stabia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juve Stabia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Empoli 2-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 52%, Juve Stabia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 48% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 38% of games; Juve Stabia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Juve Stabia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Juve Stabia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Empoli's recent matches and 55% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Juve Stabia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 48% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Juve Stabia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Empoli's recent matches and 69% of Juve Stabia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Juve Stabia attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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