Napoli 4-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Napoli face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Napoli (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Napoli have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.20 PPG lead over Udinese (1.80 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Napoli's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) — Napoli have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Udinese in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Napoli, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Udinese — Udinese have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2023, ended Napoli 1–1 Udinese — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Napoli and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Udinese — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus Udinese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 51% | Udinese 46%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Napoli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.31 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.001 / defence 0.907 | Udinese attack 0.756 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.118. Udinese's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Napoli's last 43 games and Udinese's last 43.
Result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 30% | Udinese 21%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.05 | Draw 3.32 | Udinese 4.71. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Napoli's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Napoli 30% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 30% | Udinese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Napoli 1.31 / Udinese 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.001 / def 0.907 | Udinese attack 0.756 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Napoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Napoli vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Napoli vs Udinese kick off?
Napoli vs Udinese kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Napoli 4 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Napoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Udinese part of?
Napoli vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 6) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 49% chance of winning, Udinese a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Napoli and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Napoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Napoli's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.76x) against Napoli's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Napoli's last 43 games and Udinese's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.32
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.07
0.77
Udinese xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Napoli vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Napoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Napoli and 0.77 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Napoli come into this having played 43 games, going 30W 8D 5L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (11W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Napoli's home form reads 15W 3D 3L across their last 21 home games, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 21 away games (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.12 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
Napoli (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Napoli
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Napoli vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Napoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 30W 8D 5L in their last 43 games (2.28 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Udinese away?
Napoli's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.29 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Napoli or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won Udinese 0-4 Napoli on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Napoli vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Napoli have won 6, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Udinese?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 43%, Udinese 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Napoli) and 43% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Udinese in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Napoli vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Napoli and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Napoli's recent matches and 43% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Napoli and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Napoli's recent games and 43% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Udinese 4-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.31 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Udinese attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 49% | Draw 30% | Udinese 21%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 51%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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