Empoli 1-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 September 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 0.80 PPG, Salernitana 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Empoli, 0 for Salernitana and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Salernitana in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 44% versus Salernitana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 35% | Salernitana 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.07 xG and Salernitana 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.689 / defence 1.048 | Salernitana attack 0.958 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.111. Empoli's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Empoli games / 43 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 33% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 35%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Salernitana 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salernitana are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 30% | Salernitana 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 33% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Empoli 1.07 / Salernitana 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.689 / def 1.048 | Salernitana attack 0.958 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Salernitana xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Salernitana kick off?
Empoli vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Salernitana?
Empoli 1 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Empoli vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Salernitana part of?
Empoli vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 33% chance of winning, Salernitana a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Empoli and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Salernitana?
Record (4 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 2 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Empoli and Salernitana in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Empoli's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.08
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Salernitana xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Empoli and 1.11 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 13D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 1.05 PPG from 43 outings (9W 18D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.00 PPG, Salernitana on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (2W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.21 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 9W 18D 16L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Salernitana away?
Empoli's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.29 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Empoli's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Empoli
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Salernitana 1-3 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Salernitana?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 38%, Salernitana 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 48% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 38% of games; Salernitana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Empoli's recent matches and 62% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 48% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Salernitana tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Salernitana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Salernitana 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.07 xG and Salernitana 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salernitana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.69 / defence 1.05 against Salernitana attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 33% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 35%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 35%, Salernitana 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.00 PPG, Salernitana 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.