Udinese 0-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fiorentina at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Fiorentina encounter.

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Full Analysis

Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Udinese have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Udinese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fiorentina (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Fiorentina have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Udinese, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Udinese 0–2 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 50% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Fiorentina 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.745 / defence 1.023 | Fiorentina attack 1.183 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.147. Udinese's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Udinese's last 42 games and Fiorentina's last 42.

Result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 40%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.23 | Draw 3.49 | Fiorentina 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 50% (last 10 away games).

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