Udinese 2-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Udinese take on Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genoa travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese in Serie A (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Udinese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genoa stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genoa away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Genoa are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Udinese's 30% BTTS rate and Genoa's 30% (from Udinese's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Udinese, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2022, ended Udinese 0–0 Genoa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 50% versus Genoa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.90 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.663 / defence 1.095 | Genoa attack 0.654 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.119. Udinese's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Genoa's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Udinese's last 44 games and Genoa's last 6.
Result probabilities: Udinese 34% | Draw 37% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.91 | Draw 2.71 | Genoa 3.48. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.80 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 30% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 7 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 34% | Draw 37% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Udinese 0.90 / Genoa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.663 / def 1.095 | Genoa attack 0.654 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Genoa xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Genoa kick off?
Udinese vs Genoa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Udinese 2 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Udinese vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Genoa part of?
Udinese vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 34% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Udinese and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Udinese vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 44 games and Genoa's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
37%
2.71
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Udinese xG
Total xG
1.70
0.80
Genoa xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Udinese and 0.80 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 16D 17L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.84 PPG from 44 outings (23W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 6W 10D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.59 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.39 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
Udinese (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Udinese vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Genoa in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 11W 16D 17L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Genoa have gone 23W 12D 9L in their last 44 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.27 PPG; Genoa away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Udinese or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Genoa in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 54%, Genoa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 36%; Udinese have failed to score in 27% of games; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Udinese's recent matches and 41% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Udinese and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Udinese's recent matches and 64% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Genoa finished level at 2-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.90 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.66 / defence 1.09 against Genoa attack 0.65 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 34% | Draw 37% | Genoa 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 48%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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