TSV Hartberg 0-3 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 2). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Rapid Vienna have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rapid Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Rapid Vienna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended TSV Hartberg 1–0 Rapid Vienna — a TSV Hartberg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 60% | Rapid Vienna 49%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while TSV Hartberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.964 / defence 0.927 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.197 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Rapid Vienna bring a tight defence (rating 0.749, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling TSV Hartberg's projected output down. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Rapid Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 38%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.38 | Draw 3.06 | Rapid Vienna 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG TSV Hartberg 0.97 / Rapid Vienna 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.964 / def 0.927 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.197 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rapid Vienna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 2) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 30% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Rapid Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
30%
3.38
33%
3.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.09
1.12
Rapid Vienna xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.12 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 13D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.38 PPG from 55 outings (20W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.22 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.60 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.37 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Rapid Vienna.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Rapid Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 52%, Rapid Vienna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 52% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 74% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Rapid Vienna outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.20 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 38%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 60%, Rapid Vienna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.22 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.