Kryvbas KR 3-0 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Kryvbas KR's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kryvbas KR at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dnipro-1 have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dnipro-1's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 2.10 for Dnipro-1. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Kryvbas KR, 1 for Dnipro-1 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Kryvbas KR 0–1 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 38% versus Dnipro-1 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 42% | Dnipro-1 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG and Dnipro-1 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.140 / defence 0.983 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.089 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.252. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 41 games and Dnipro-1's last 40.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 42%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.34 | Draw 3.54 | Dnipro-1 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.09 / Dnipro-1 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.140 / def 0.983 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.089 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 0 Dnipro-1.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 30% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.14) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.09x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 41 games and Dnipro-1's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.54
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.43
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.34 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 7D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.20 PPG from 40 outings (27W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 11W 2D 6L across their last 19 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.21 points per game from their last 19 away games (13W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.85 scored and 0.85 conceded. Dnipro-1's attacking output running into Kryvbas KR's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 19W 7D 14L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 27W 7D 6L in their last 40 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.84 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won Kryvbas KR 3-0 Dnipro-1 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2024: Dnipro-1 1-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 37%, Dnipro-1 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kryvbas KR) and 58% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 47%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 47% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 58% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 63% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dnipro-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Dnipro-1 3-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG and Dnipro-1 1.34 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dnipro-1 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 42%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 42%, Dnipro-1 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with Kryvbas KR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.