Ruh Lviv 0-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Dnipro-1 — this Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Dnipro-1 at Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Wednesday 1 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 0L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Dnipro-1 have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dnipro-1 away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.70 PPG, Dnipro-1 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Dnipro-1 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Ruh Lviv. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Apr 2023, ended Ruh Lviv 2–3 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dnipro-1 have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Dnipro-1 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 44% | Dnipro-1 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.08 xG and Dnipro-1 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.937 / defence 0.756 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.994 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.200. Ruh Lviv have a tight defence (rating 0.756), which is pulling Dnipro-1's projected output down. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 41 games and Dnipro-1's last 41.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 39% | Draw 32% | Dnipro-1 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.59 | Draw 3.10 | Dnipro-1 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and Dnipro-1's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 39% | Draw 32% | Dnipro-1 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.08 / Dnipro-1 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.937 / def 0.756 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.994 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dnipro-1 xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Wednesday 1 November 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 39% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 41 games and Dnipro-1's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.10
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.98
0.90
Dnipro-1 xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.90 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 12W 16D 13L from 41 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 27W 7D 7L across 41 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 6W 12D 2L from their last 20 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 13W 3D 4L across their last 20 away games, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.80 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 12W 16D 13L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 27W 7D 7L in their last 41 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.50 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2024: Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 65%, Dnipro-1 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ruh Lviv) and 60% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ruh Lviv's games and 45% of Dnipro-1's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 60% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 65% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Ruh Lviv 0-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.08 xG and Dnipro-1 0.90 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.94 / defence 0.76 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 39% | Draw 32% | Dnipro-1 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dnipro-1 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 44%, Dnipro-1 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.