Vorskla Poltava 2-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to take on Vorskla Poltava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.10 (FC Kharkiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 55% versus FC Kharkiv 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 52% | FC Kharkiv 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.069 / defence 1.377 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.674 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.191. Data: 41 Vorskla Poltava games / 40 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 34%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 60% | FC Kharkiv 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.12 / FC Kharkiv 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.069 / def 1.377 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.674 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 35% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.26
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.22
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.10 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 7D 16L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 9W 16D 15L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 10D 7L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.75 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 16D 15L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, FC Kharkiv 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Vorskla Poltava and 20% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; FC Kharkiv in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.07 / defence 1.38 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.67 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 34%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 52%, FC Kharkiv 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.