Chornomorets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chornomorets face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chornomorets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 51% | Shakhtar Donetsk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.036 / defence 1.126 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.473 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.230. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.690 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Chornomorets games / 55 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 13% | Draw 22% | Shakhtar Donetsk 65%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 7.69 | Draw 4.55 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 13% | Draw 22% | Shakhtar Donetsk 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 0.81 / Shakhtar Donetsk 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.036 / def 1.126 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.473 / def 0.690 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Chornomorets 1 - 4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 13% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
13%
7.67
22%
4.63
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.85
2.04
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
7.67
13%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
13%
7.70
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
2%
59.08
29%
3.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Chornomorets and 2.04 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 10D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 2.42 PPG from 55 outings (41W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 8W 5D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Shakhtar Donetsk have taken 2.33 points per game from 27 outings (19W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.24 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 18W 10D 27L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 41W 10D 4L in their last 55 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.07 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 41%, Shakhtar Donetsk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chornomorets) and 63% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 56% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Chornomorets's matches and 63% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Chornomorets 1-4 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 2.04 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 2.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.47 / defence 0.69, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 13% | Draw 22% | Shakhtar Donetsk 65%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 51%, Shakhtar Donetsk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.