Prachuap 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Port FC at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Port FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1 (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Prachuap have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Prachuap's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Port FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Port FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 1.30 PPG clear of Prachuap over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Prachuap's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Prachuap's games and 80% of Port FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Prachuap, 3 for Port FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Prachuap 1–3 Port FC — a Port FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 68% and Port FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 53% | Port FC 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Prachuap surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Port FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.21 xG and Port FC 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.931 / defence 1.054 | Port FC attack 1.360 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.270. Port FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Prachuap's projected output down. Port FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.360, which lifts their away xG to 1.82. Data: built from Prachuap's last 47 games and Port FC's last 47.

Result probabilities: Prachuap 24% | Draw 26% | Port FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 4.19 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 1.99. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.21 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Prachuap's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Prachuap 70% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights